Accuracy board

Results and 10-day outlook

Monthly champions 2026

Champions at a glance: who is no. 1

By period and forecast day, 24 cities

By city and forecast day, 2026 year to date

How it is scored

Every day each model's forecast is recorded for up to 10 days ahead. When the observed value for a day is published, every forecast made for that day is scored and the cumulative record is updated, once a day. A forecast issued N days earlier is compared with the ERA5 value for the same UTC day at each city. Each element has its own tab and its own ranking: daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature,, daily maximum wind speed and daily precipitation total. Lower RMSE ranks higher. Models are compared on the same cases: days and cities where every listed model issued a forecast. Type shows how a model works: AI models learn the forecast from data, Physics (Supercomputer) models solve the equations of the atmosphere on supercomputers. ERA5 is published about five days after the fact, so the latest verification date trails today. Forecasts 1 to 7 days ahead are scored from 2026-01-01; forecasts 8 to 10 days ahead are archived from 2026-11-13 and enter the ranking as their target days are verified. Darwin-Prediction-Weather is VIDRAFT's fusion engine: skill-weighted fusion of the public models, with local bias correction for temperature and wind, fitted only on days before the one being scored. It is ranked on exactly the same cases as the public models. In the 10-day outlook the fusion for days beyond the longest scored lead uses that lead's calibration.